Mortgage growth amid restrictions

Mortgage growth amid restrictions
According to analytical reports, in December 2023, mortgages worth RUB 785 billion were issued. against 726 billion rubles. in November (+8%). The main contribution was made by loans with state support: banks issued them in the amount of 655 billion rubles. (+21% 4 to 540 billion rubles in November), including against the backdrop of announced decisions to tighten the conditions of state programs. Growth was noted both for “Preferential mortgages” (preliminary estimate of December issuances - 280 billion rubles against 233 billion rubles in November) and for “Family mortgages” (from 241 billion rubles to 284 billion rubles).
Issues of market mortgages, on the contrary, decreased by 30% by November - to 131 billion rubles, according to analytical data.
Over the year, the mortgage portfolio in Russia showed a record growth of 34.5%. In 2022, the dynamics amounted to 20.4%, analysts say. The growth of mortgages was stimulated mainly by state support programs (they account for about 60% of all issues), the rates for which were not affected by the increase in the key rate of the Bank of Russia. People sought to invest money in real estate amid a weakening ruble and high inflation expectations.
At the beginning of 2024, experts expect “balanced growth and improved mortgage lending standards, which suggests market growth will not be as strong as in 2023.” Among the key factors influencing the segment are the increase in the down payment on Preferential Mortgages to 30% from 20%, high rates on market mortgages and the tightening of risk ratio premiums on loans for borrowers with a high debt load from March 2024.
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