Overview of the mortgage lending market in the second quarter of 2023
The weighted average lending rate in the primary market increased to 6.1% (+0.8 percentage points compared to Q1 2023) due to the curtailment of “mortgages from developers”; in the secondary market it remained almost unchanged (9.9% ) taking into account stable monetary conditions in April - June.
Mortgage portfolio in Q2. grew by 1 trillion rubles. (after +0.6 trillion rubles in the first quarter) to 15.7 trillion rubles. and as of 07/01/2023. Mortgage remained the driver of retail lending, providing about 60% of the growth in all loans in April - June.
In July, according to estimates, mortgage issuance remained at the high level of recent months (155-165 thousand loans worth 600-650 billion rubles). However, on July 21, the Bank of Russia increased the key rate by 1 percentage point. and allowed it to continue to grow. In addition, the regulator increased macro premiums on mortgages, while delaying their entry into force until October 1.
An increase in the key rate and stricter regulation of the mortgage market will lead to a slight slowdown in the issuance of mortgages in the second half of the year. Nevertheless, the issuance of mortgages in general for 2023 will exceed the figures for 2022: according to the DOM.RF forecast, banks will provide 1.6-1.7 million loans worth 6-6.5 trillion rubles.
In the second quarter, average monthly mortgage issuance almost reached the 2021 record level. In the II quarter In 2023, the mortgage lending market was actively growing: banks provided 479 thousand loans (+38% compared to the first quarter of 2023) for 1.8 trillion rubles. (+39%) - In annual terms, the issuance increased by more than 3 times. This growth is partly due to the low base of the second quarter. 2022, when demand for mortgages fell due to uncertainty and rising rates ‒ At the same time, the monthly issuance of mortgages in April - June 2023 is close to the level of the record year 2021 (150-170 thousand loans), and in terms of volume - even higher (550-630 billion rubles).
High demand for mortgages in the second quarter. was supported by the growth of nominal wages of the population, stabilization of housing prices and fears of rising rates due to tightening of mortgage regulation and the expected increase in the key rate.
The market driver was mortgages for finished housing3, largely due to more affordable prices: banks provided 346 thousand new loans (+41% to Q1 2023) for RUB 1.1 trillion. (+46%). In the primary market (PDM), the issuance grew more modestly: 130 thousand loans (+33% compared to the first quarter of 2023) by 632 billion rubles. (+29%). At the same time, almost all loans for new buildings (more than 95%) were issued under preferential programs.
Demand for refinancing remained low (3 thousand loans for 10 billion rubles - at the level of Q1 2023) while market rates remained at ~11%.
Issuance of mortgages in the second quarter. 2023 significantly exceeded the results of last year.
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